2024 Election: Narendra Modi has been a confident leader in recent weeks. Modi, whose Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won three state elections in significant states during December, did not hesitate to predict that “this hat trick has guaranteed the victory of 2024”.

The campaign season began with vigour even though there are less than six months until the general elections, where Modi will seek a third term in power.

Analysts agree that the most likely outcome in India’s current political scene is a victory for Modi and the BJP.

The popularity of the prime minister as a strongman politician, along with the BJP’s Hindu-nationalist agenda, continues to appeal to the vast Hindu majority in the country, especially in the Hindi belt in the north. This has resulted in widespread persecution of Muslims.

Since Modi’s election in 2014, the state and national level apparatus has been heavily skewed towards the BJP. Since Modi was elected in 2014, the country’s device has shifted heavily towards the BJP.

Nationally, the BJP’s opposition is fragmented and weak. The Indian National Congress won Telangana’s state elections this month but is only in power in three states. It is also perceived to be hierarchical, with much internal fighting.

INDIA, the newly formed coalition of major opposition parties that goes by the acronym INDIA, has yet to unite on key issues. However, it has vowed collectively to fight the BJP.

“The general feeling is that a BJP victory is almost inevitable at this stage,” Neelanjan Sicar, a fellow with the Centre for Policy Research, said. “The question now is: What factors will determine the size of the victory?”

The BJP is launching a national pre-election campaign. Viksit Bharati Sankalp Yatra will see thousands of government officers deployed in towns and villages throughout the country for the next two months to speak about the BJP’s success over the last nine years – despite critics who have criticised the politicisation of government bureaucracy.

The Ministry of Defence has also set up 822 “selfie points” at war monuments, defence museums and tourist attractions, where people can take pictures of themselves with Modi cutouts.

Modi’s popularity seemed reaffirmed by the BJP’s recent dominance in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chattisgarh. The prime minister is not involved in state elections, which elects local assembly members.

However, the BJP strategically placed Modi at the forefront of their campaigns, replacing local leaders. He appeared at dozens of rallies and appealed directly to voters, presenting himself as the embodiment and face of the BJP.

Modi’s message in these speeches combined paternalistic welfare programs – which give large amounts of food and cash handouts – with nationalistic, religiously communal and nationalistic rhetoric. This gave a glimpse at how the BJP plans to fight the elections on a nationwide scale.

Modi’s role as an international leader, whether in politics or the moon landing of August (India was the first nation to successfully land a satellite near the south pole of the Moon), was prominent.

Asim Ali, a politician, stated that the state election campaigns held in the north are “some of most religiously polarising” I’ve seen, as the BJP heavily played on Hindutva sentiments (Hindu nationalism) to win the majority votes.

Modi repeatedly invoked in Rajasthan an incident when extremist Muslims had murdered a Hindu tailor to claim that the Congress party that ruled the state was “sympathetic” to terrorists and that their appeasement towards Muslims was what led to the murder.

There were four Hindu priests on the BJP list, including some with extreme views, but there were no Muslims. The BJP played to fears that tribal people would be forced away from Hinduism in the tribal-dominated state of Chhattisgarh.

Modi came to power in 2014 after a wave of anti-incumbency. His re-election in 2019 was almost assured after India launched airstrikes against Pakistan after a terrorist attack a few months before the elections, creating a storm of sentiments in his favour.

Whether the BJP can win the same sweeping parliamentary majority it did in 2019 needs to be clarified. The BJP’s position must be defined in some states like Maharashtra and Bihar. Its weak performance on jobs and inflation could also influence voting.

Ali said, “Hindu and Muslim communication is now completely normalised. Not just by political campaigns, but also through television news channels, social media messages and WhatsApp messages.”

The BJP can activate it at any time at the grassroots. Modi, other senior BJP officials, and a few dog whistles coded to a particular community can send the message.

The long-awaited Ram Mandir opening, a grand Hindu Temple built to replace a mosque, is likely to be one of the most critical issues on the BJP agenda in the run-up to the election.

The construction of this building in Ayodhya in north India has been a focal part of the Hindu Nationalist movement for many years. Modi’s planned inauguration is expected to become a significant national event.

Baijayant Panda said that the BJP was confident in the parliamentary election. He attributed the confidence partly to the “Modi premium”, meaning that the BJP tends to perform better at national elections than in state ones because of the “stratospheric” popularity of the Prime Minister.

Panda said there was a surge of optimism in areas where we had failed to succeed. This kind of victory at the state level has completely cemented our position.

Analysts and human rights organisations were concerned about what a Modi third term would mean for India. This was especially true if he won a second outright majority.

Panda claimed that it would be defined as India becoming the third-largest economy in the world. In contrast, others were concerned about the erosion of democracy and rights for the Muslim minorities, which number more than 200 million.

Ashutosh Varshney is the director of Brown University’s Center for Contemporary South Asia. He said that he expects the rights of Muslims will continue to be attacked.

He warned that under Modi’s third term, a situation like the Jim Crow laws in southern American states of the late 19th century and early 20th century, which disenfranchised African Americans based on race, might become a reality.

Varshney said that if Modi returns to power, he could bring back a Jim Crow-style Hindu nationalism in a BJP-ruled state.

It will establish Hindu supremacy and deprive Muslims of equality, as well as create secondary citizenship for Muslims that will eventually take away their voting rights.

This British Newspaper Says A Hattrick Of Victories For Modi In The 2024 Elections Is Almost Inevitable

The Guardian column reported that after winning the assembly elections in three states, PM Modi did not hold back in predicting that “this hat trick has guaranteed victory in 2024”.

According to a UK-based newspaper, The Guardian, a third term in the upcoming Lok Sabha election for Narendra Modi appears ‘almost certain’.

Hannah Ellis-Petersen is the author who says that the recent victories of the party in state elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh combined with the immense popularity of PM Modi and emotive issues like the Ram Temple in Ayodhya make a hattrick “almost inevitable”.

After winning three assembly elections, the column stated that PM Modi did not hold back in predicting that “this hat trick has guaranteed the victory of 2024”.

Ellis-Peterson’s column stated that in India’s current political climate, political analysts agree that a Modi victory and a BJP win is “the most plausible outcome”.

She added that the prime minister’s reputation as a strongman politician, along with the BJP nationalist agenda, continues to appeal to the majority of the nation, especially in the heartland.

Since Modi (PM) was elected in 2014, the national and state-level apparatus has leaned heavily toward the BJP. The column stated that the national opposition to the BJP needs to be ‘fragmented’ and stronger.

The Guardian reported that “the main opposition, the Indian National Congress, won this month’s state elections in Telangana but is only in power in three states in total and is perceived to be “hierarchical” and “riddled with internal fighting”.

The article continued, “The newly formed coalition of major opposition parties, which goes by the acronym INDIA, is yet to unite around crucial issues, even though it has vowed collectively to fight the BJP,” adding that “the general feeling is that a BJP victory is almost inevitability” at this point, Neelanjan Sicar, a fellow with the Centre for Policy Research said in an ANI Report.

What Factors Will Determine The Size Of The Victory?

The column mentioned the BJP’s ‘nationwide election campaign’ — ‘Viksit Bharat Sankalp Yatra.’ It stated that ‘thousands’ of government officials will be deployed to villages and towns across the country in the next two months, “tasked to speak about the BJP’s success over the last nine years.”

“In 2014, PM Modi came to power largely due to an anti-incumbency movement. His re-election in 2019 was almost assured after India launched airstrikes against Pakistan after a terrorist attack a few months before the elections, creating a storm of sentiments in his favour,” wrote Ellis-Petersen.

She added that it was an ‘unclear situation’ if the BJP could repeat its landslide victory of 2019.

The column stated that the party’s position was determined in Bihar is still being determined in Maharashtra. It also noted that issues like ‘jobs’ and ‘inflation’ may affect the voting pattern.

The BJP’s dominating victories in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chattisgarh have reaffirmed PM Modi’s popularity. The state elections are primarily to elect local assembly members.

Although (the) PM is not involved in these elections, the BJP strategically placed Modi at the forefront of their campaigns, replacing local leaders.

He appeared at dozens of rallies and directly appealed to voters, presenting himself as the embodiment and embodiment of the party.

The column stated that the grand opening of the Ram Temple by PM Modi on January 22 was “one of biggest issues” likely to dominate the BJP agenda before the general election. The “fanfare” around the temple’s inauguration later on is expected to be national.